Why speculation is not a prime cause of high and volatile international agricultural commodity prices: An economic analysis of the 2007-08 price spike

In the article the authors, Harald von Witzke and Steffen Noleppa, analyze the determinants of the 2007-08 price spike and quantify the impact of a number of supply and demand side variables on monthly prices of wheat, corn and soybeans. The results of their analysis suggest that the price spike of 2007-08 can largely be explained by changes in supply and demand determining variables, leaving little room for unexplained price changes that might be attributed to speculation.

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